WHAT IS A FOOTBALL TEASER, HOW DOES IT WORK?
Football Teasers: The Pros & Cons
If you are going to have any success betting NFL teasers, you need to know a couple things. First, you need to understand how the bet works and then you must understand how to use them to your advantage.
Most bettors, even those that lack experience, know what a teaser is. It is a series of bets combined into one where you, the bettor, have the ability to shift the lines in your favor. The most common teaser bets are those involving NFL games. The most common NFL teasers are as follows:
· 2-team, 6-point teaser
· 2-team, 7-point teaser
· 3-team, 10-point teaser
Among those three options, the 2-team, 6-point teaser is the most common. This teaser typically pays a little more than a regular NFL point spread. Teasers can be profitable, but you have to understand a few key concepts.
Key Numbers
The reason why NFL games lend themselves to teasers is because of common margins of victory. In the NFL, more games end with a three-point margin of victory than any other. Other common margins of victory are 4, 6, 7, 10, and 14. These are known as “key numbers.”
Most games end with either a three-point or seven-point margin of victory. That is where teaser strategy comes in to play. Any time you can cross both of these numbers with both legs of the teaser at up to -130 odds, you have an opportunity. Let’s look at an example.
Baltimore -8 (-110) vs. Cleveland
Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh +2.5 (-110)
In the first game, we tease the Ravens down to -2. We have crossed two key numbers – 3 and 7. If Baltimore wins by three or more points, that leg of the teaser wins.
In the second bet, we can tease Pittsburgh up to +8.5. Once again, we cross the key numbers of 3 and 7 and will win if the Steelers lose by eight or less or win outright.
More Numbers
To break even on a 2-team, 6-point teaser at -110, you need teams to have a greater than 72.4 percent chance of covering after the tease Since 2003, teams teased six points have covered 69 percent of the time. That’s good, but not good enough.
Now, account for teasers that capture both 3 and 7 and eliminate the rest. Since 2003, NFL underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 have covered a 6-point teaser 75.3 percent of the time. Favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 have covered 76 percent of the time when teased. That is why it is important to cross those key numbers.
2-Team, 7-Point Teaser
The same strategy as in a 6-point teaser applies with the 7-point teaser. Bettors want to find short underdogs and longer favorites to tease across key numbers.
Using the same example from above, we could tease the Ravens to -1 and the Steelers to +9.5. Again, we cross the key numbers of 3 and 7 giving us an opportunity for victory.
It also typically in a bettor’s best interest to look for games with lower projected totals. For example, underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 with a game total of 47 or lower cover 77 percent of the time (when teased up to six points).
3-Team, 10-Point Teaser
Again, the idea here is to find underdogs of +1.5 and +2 and tease them to +11.5 and +12 to cross key numbers. The numbers are the same on the favorite side of the bet. Take -12.5- to -11.5-point favorites and tease them down to -2.5 and -1.5.
As a general rule, it is not wise to cross zero when teasing a bet. With the change in NFL overtime rules, the likelihood of a tie is miniscule. NFL playoff games cannot end in a tie. Therefore, crossing zero means that you lose a final scoring margin.
The 3-team, 10-point teaser gives the bettor some freedom to adjust point spreads by 10 points, but you have to get all three bets correct. The payout is a bit higher on a 3-team teaser because it is riskier.
Teaser Pros
There are a number of reasons why bettors like teasers. The first is the payout. Bettors will get a higher payout by combining two (or three) bets into one. The typical -110 juice on a single bet turns into plus-money often when betting teasers.
The teaser bet is also less risky than the typical parlay. It won’t payout as high, but bettors can manipulate the point spread in their favor.
Teasers also make NFL games more fun and exciting to watch. There’s nothing like winning not one, but two bets and getting a little higher payout as a result.
Teaser Cons
In order for a teaser bet to win, a bettor needs to win all the legs. Each bet – whether a 2-team or 3-team teaser – must be a winner or the entire teaser bet is a loss. As a result, it is hard to win teaser bets. That is the biggest negative in betting teasers.